SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

Guide to Right Investments

As an individual we all have targets and set goals in our finances, hence adequate information to the right investment is very important. Considering the fact that good investments help us to actualize our objectives in our education, career, capital projects, family needs, etc, then it’s imperative for us to understand these investments.Presently, we are faced with the recovery of the economy after experiencing the global economic meltdown for more than two years of economic impasse. In most African countries, especially Nigeria do not seem to get on a good start as the government has limited funds to inject into the economy (Capital market) unlike other developed nations of the world are currently doing. Therefore, there’s a need for us to make the right decision at this trying period. There are different types of Investments available to us; Savings, Insurance, Bonds, Equities and Stocks, FOREX, Real Estates, Importation and Exportation, and what have you. These may sound interesting, but we must look before we make decisions in our chosen investments.For most people, making the right investment decision can be a tough one. They assume that you need enough money to venture into a lucrative business. It is always a good idea to do some research before you can make a decision as to what you want to invest in. This is better achieved the most when you gather information on your type of investment because you want to make the right investments that would work best for you. It is financially wise for you to know the investment basics so that you will be in a position to have variety of choices. Is this where the use of funds comes in? It is advisable that you use your savings especially if you plan to invest in long term. Moreover, you do not need a lot to get into investing though; you can use your monthly savings and investing consistently. The Stocks and shares option is one of the most popular and profitable business.Also investing in Insurance policy is another guaranteed way of investing without having fear for drop in market price. Unlike the stock market, Insurance is a sure way of getting your money back with a certain accumulated interest over a stipulated period of time that is if there have not been any occurrences before the maturity date. This however, would be discussed exclusively in my subsequent articles.The mutual fund investment option is yet another form of investing whereby organizations collect money from different individuals and use it to venture into suitable quoted company stock at the right time.This reduces your risk of losing money since you are not directly investing in the stock market. You should look out for all loop holes and engage the services of a financial expert to help you make suitable investment choices.Before we delve into the various investments stated above properly, there is a need to highlight the basic Principles of Investments that would be our guide to a successful venture. I shall discuss 5 of these proven principles that would guide us through;The first investment principle we must know is to get the foundation right of any investments plan and all the hiccups we envisaged or encountered would be checked. The problem most people have is that they try to solve their challenges from the surface. It is easy for one to quickly take a pain relieving tablets to stop his toothache problems without knowing the cause. Alright let’s look at our business transactions as an instance. A growing businessman borrows money from his fellow business men to build his business venture. By doing this overtime he became heavily indebted. But in order to be free from his indebtedness, he quickly pays his debts without ever considering the fact that his greatest weakness could be poor financial (money) management. In Nigeria today, an average 60 percent of the population are into entrepreneurship in one business or the other yet most of them have little idea of their venture which accounts for low returns in profit every quarter. This dismay performance could only be attributed to their poor knowledge of the said business, hence the business foundation is lacking. In addressing such situations, understanding the roots of these investments
would place us on the driver’s sit to know where and how to make great returns on our investmentsThe second principle simply tells us to set values in our investments’ plan and life goals generally as a yard stick to take us to our desired expectations. Values are internal anchors we set ahead of time to guide us in time of decisions making. It is also important to note that in our individual offices and business places, values we set for ourselves would determine the future and success of our careers and business ventures. According to Hamel, G. in “Rethinking the basis for Competition” in (Gibson, R (ed) Re-thinking The Future, Nicholas Brealey Publishing, London pp. 76-92 he says that “the big challenge in creating the future is not predicting the future. Instead, the goal is to try to imagine a future that is plausible – a future that you create based on values.” As matter of fact, we must place great values on our investments and businesses for it to grow beyond limits.On the third principles of investments, we must draw out our investments plans and strategy. One does not expect a high dividend as a return on your investments from a quoted company if you don’t invest well on that company. In any investment we do, there is need to know the strategy to adopt in getting good returns. Let’s look at the stock market for instance, you would not be foolish to invest in First Bank PLC in the Nigerian Stock Exchange that has reached its’ bullish state when you know most investors are bailing out after a period of planting then smiling to the banks for a good investment. You have to understand the investment first (foundation) then adopt a particular plan or strategy that would suit it for a stipulated period. That is why; Sun Tzu, great author, posits that “the General who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought while the General who losses make but few calculations beforehand”. You should know that whatever plans or strategy you make does not really guarantee you success as it may not suit the kind of investments you are into but get the right information to guide you through. Hence, you are advised to invest in financial books, business tips or any investment instruments to put you ahead of your contemporaries. By doing this, you must have drawn an investment philosophy that includes your; aim, period, returns and interest of your investments.The fourth Principles would centre on our spiritual strength in business. Knowing that sometimes we face all sorts of problems and setbacks in our investments or business activities, we may not have the physical power to overcome them. To be realistic, we need to look up to God by committing our businesses in His hands irrespective of our religion or faith. According to the Book of Proverbs; “If God can see everything in the world of the dead, he can also see in our hearts.” If we commit our ways to God, He would direct our paths. We should always seek Him when faced with any problems. I also suggest you renew your minds with great spiritual and inspirational materials. Great authors like; T.D. Jakes, John Mason, Joyce Meryce, Mathew Ashimolowo, Dale Carnegie, etc have wonderful works that can nourish our soul and make us achievers even in the face of adversity. You would find out that what you consider as problems are not problems, but some stumbling blocks you encountered as challenges to your road to success.The last Principles of investments which is the fifth, has to do with you as an individual. As a child while growing up, we all aspired to be one great professional in our chosen field. That’s the reason why Education could be adjudged as the highest form of investment. I must say that that most professionals or CEOs these days don’t utilize five percent of their brain. With the latest technologies at our finger tips, we seldom use our brain to work even getting the least calculations. Knowledge they say is power. The more knowledge we acquire, the more resourceful we become in affecting our lives positively. We have to invest in ourselves to improve on our business ideas and skills as change is inevitable. To buttress this point, let’s look at Romans 12:2; “and be not conformed to this world, but be ye transformed by the renewing of your mind that you may prove what is good and acceptable and perfect will of God”. Please make it a habit to invest huge part of your income on your brain and mind, as it’s such an investment that you would receive a 100% returns.Remember, knowledge is part of the key to all successful businesses. Follow these basic principles of investments guide and you would be amazed how your business would grow in greater profits.

Shoe Repairs And Several Other Things When I Was 7

Shoe Repairs And Several Other Things When I Was 7
My Dad repaired most of our shoes believe it or not, I can hardly believe it myself now. With 7 pairs of shoes always needing repairs I think he was quite clever to learn how to “Keep us in shoe Leather” to coin a phrase!

He bought several different sizes of cast iron cobbler’s “lasts”. Last, the old English “Laest” meaning footprint. Lasts were holding devices shaped like a human foot. I have no idea where he would have bought the shoe leather. Only that it was a beautiful creamy, shiny colour and the smell was lovely.

But I do remember our shoes turned upside down on and fitted into these lasts, my Dad cutting the leather around the shape of the shoe, and then hammering nails, into the leather shape. Sometimes we’d feel one or 2 of those nails poking through the insides of our shoes, but our dad always fixed it.

Hiking and Swimming Galas
Dad was a very outdoorsy type, unlike my mother, who was probably too busy indoors. She also enjoyed the peace and quiet when he took us off for the day!

Anyway, he often took us hiking in the mountains where we’d have a picnic of sandwiches and flasks of tea. And more often than not we went by steam train.

We loved poking our heads out of the window until our eyes hurt like mad from a blast of soot blowing back from the engine. But sore, bloodshot eyes never dampened our enthusiasm.

Dad was an avid swimmer and water polo player, and he used to take us to swimming galas, as they were called back then. He often took part in these galas. And again we always travelled by steam train.

Rowing Over To Ireland’s Eye
That’s what we did back then, we had to go by rowboat, the only way to get to Ireland’s eye, which is 15 minutes from mainland Howth. From there we could see Malahide, Lambay Island and Howth Head of course. These days you can take a Round Trip Cruise on a small cruise ship!

But we thoroughly enjoyed rowing and once there we couldn’t wait to climb the rocks, and have a swim. We picnicked and watched the friendly seals doing their thing and showing off.

Not to mention all kinds of birdlife including the Puffin.The Martello Tower was also interesting but a bit dangerous to attempt entering. I’m getting lost in the past as I write, and have to drag myself back to the present.

Fun Outings with The camera Club
Dad was also a very keen amateur photographer, and was a member of a camera Club. There were many Sunday photography outings and along with us came other kids of the members of the club.

And we always had great fun while the adults busied themselves taking photos of everything and anything, it seemed to us. Dad was so serious about his photography that he set up a dark room where he developed and printed his photographs.

All black and white at the time. He and his camera club entered many of their favourites in exhibitions throughout Europe. I’m quite proud to say that many cups and medals were won by Dad. They have been shared amongst all his grandchildren which I find quite special.

He liked taking portraits of us kids too, mostly when we were in a state of untidiness, usually during play. Dad always preferred the natural look of messy hair and clothes in the photos of his children.